In the 2016 season, I will be taking part in Jonathan Kelley's competition in which he gathers a few experts together to predict what the year end Top 10 will look like for American tennis players. If you don't already follow Jonathan and the rest of the experts taking part in the competition, go ahead and change that now.
Here, I go into detail about my picks for the ATP 21 and Under players and explain how I came up with my final predictions. If you are interested in my analysis for my predictions for the ATP players of any age, click here.
No. 10 Ernesto Escobedo
Escobedo's powerful game is enough to make the majority of opponents on the challenger and futures circuit struggle. Due to his ability to blow players off the court, Escobedo belongs on this list as he will surely be able to make a few finals appearances at futures events and reach a couple quarterfinals at challengers. If he is able to stay healthy throughout the entire 2016 season, Escobedo will have no problem entering into the Top 300.
No. 9 Deiton Baughman
Baughman has a great all-around game that allows him to compete with anybody on any surface. He will continue his success on the futures circuit in 2016 and look to carry that over into the challenger circuit later in the year as he increases his ranking. With his ranking currently sitting outside the Top 300, he will have to rely on some impressive results early in the year so that he can begin getting into more challenger main draws and possibly get some consideration for ATP wild cards. After winning three futures titles in 2015, he could possibly double that amount in 2016 and even contend for a challenger title.
No. 8 Michael Mmoh
Mmoh had a very successful second half of the season in 2015, giving him some much needed confidence and momentum heading into 2016. He has proven that he can make deep runs at futures events with ease and will look to translate that success to challengers this year. With his ranking currently sitting outside the Top 450, he will struggle to get into challenger main draws early in the year, but that will quickly change as long as he can dominate on the futures circuit. Once he begins getting into challengers, plus some ATP events via wild cards, Mmoh will be able to begin showing his true potential and begin approaching the Top 300.
No. 7 Stefan Kozlov
Like Mmoh, Kozlov had a great amount of success on the futures circuit in 2015. He won his first pro title in Belarus at the end of the year, to go along with three finals and two semifinals, and will look to carry that momentum into 2016. Kozlov has had a couple good results on the challenger circuit in his career, but has yet to prove that he can compete at that level consistently. If he can change that in 2016 and make a couple more quarterfinal appearances or better, his confidence will skyrocket and he will surely be able to end the year well inside the Top 300.
No. 6 Mackenzie McDonald
The oldest player on this list is also the only player on this list that will be playing college tennis in 2016. The reason McDonald makes this list, despite still playing in college, is because of his incredible ability to make deep runs in almost every tournament he plays in. He finished 2015 by making two semifinals and a quarterfinal in challenger events, joining his already impressive results of a futures final, semifinal, and quarterfinal. These results saw his ranking finish inside the Top 400, even though he had to miss a majority of the pro season due to college play. If he can repeat the results that he had last year and turn his early round losses into more deep runs, which he is more than capable of, McDonald will be able to finish inside the Top 300. In search of his first professional title, he will surely be able to get one on the futures level early in the year, leading to him contending for one on the challenger circuit once his college season ends.
No. 5 Tommy Paul
Without question, Paul is one of the clear bright spots in the future of American tennis, with his French Open juniors title being just a small indication of that. Paul's dominance on the juniors circuit translated easily into the pro ranks, as he won two futures titles, made the final of a challenger, made six other futures quarterfinals, and qualified for the main draw at the US Open. Paul will not play many futures events in 2016 thanks to his ranking being near the Top 250 right now, but he will still manage to make many deep runs on the challenger circuit and possibly win a couple titles. Paul has some of the biggest potential out of all the young Americans, and will prove that in 2016 as he will finish well inside the Top 200.
No. 4 Noah Rubin
Rubin had a variety of success in 2015 and really began proving himself amongst the higher levels of professional tennis. In college, he was able to make the final of the NCAA singles tournament and make history at Wake Forest, but he was also able to win a challenger title, make a final, two semifinals, and two quarterfinals at futures events, all while playing a limited schedule. Now that Rubin is able to play a full season, he will be able to make more impressive runs and compete for another challenger title. Rubin has the ability to finish 2016 near the Top 150, but first, he will look to make a stamp on the tour level as he has put extensive work into this offseason to ensure a successful journey at the Australian Open.
No. 3 Frances Tiafoe
Tiafoe won over many fans in 2015 as he splashed onto the scene early in the year and never faded away. His fiery attitude combined with his absurd skill level has made him one of the favorites for many American tennis fans, as he looks to approach the Top 100 in 2016. Tiafoe certainly has the ability to win every tournament he plays in, but the main factor for his success this season will depend on how well he is able to keep his composure on court. If he is able to stay level headed throughout tough matches in 2016, he will have no issue winning challenger titles and winning matches on the ATP level as he looks to crack the Top 100.
No. 2 Jared Donaldson
Donaldson pleasantly surprised American tennis fans early in 2015 when he won his first challenger title in Maui. He continued to have a great amount of success throughout the year, allowing him to finish inside the Top 150. Donaldson will surely have similar success on the challenger circuit in 2016 and look to win multiple challenger titles, as he will also attempt to make the transition to the ATP World Tour. With his various weapons and mature mindset, Donaldson will be able to compete with many players ranked above him as he looks to add to his number of ATP wins in 2016. His presence will certainly be felt at the highest level as he will be able to make it through qualifying draws throughout the year and will be granted wild cards at a few American tournaments, helping boost his ranking towards the Top 100.
No. 1 Taylor Fritz
It would be pretty stunning if Fritz doesn't finish the year inside the Top 100. Considering the fact that Fritz has less than 50 points to defend until after the US Open, he will have no issue increasing his ranking well inside the Top 100 by September. With Fritz's big serve and powerful ground game, he will be able to win most matches just by hitting his opponent off the court, whether it's at the challenger or ATP level. His stunning run of form at the end of 2015 left every American tennis fan very impressed, as he proved to the tennis world that he will be a force on the tour for many years to come. Look for Fritz to win multiple challenger titles and make deep runs at ATP events as he finishes the year as the No. 1 American 21 years of age or younger.
Honorable Mentions
The 10 players on this list have really separated themselves from the rest of the crop of young Americans, but there are a few others who may be able to sneak into the bottom end of this list. Obviously, Reilly Opelka is a name that many tennis fans know about thanks to his triumph at the Wimbledon juniors in 2015. While he does have a huge serve that can win matches on its own, his issue will be developing a more all around game that will be able to beat the players who can consistently get his serve back in play. If Opelka can manage to do that, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him sneak into the Top 10.
Henrik Wiersholm is another player I considered for this list, thanks to his win at the Pensacola Futures at the end of 2015, but he won't be able to play a full season due to his commitments to the University of Virginia. Once his college career is over, though, Wiersholm will be a shoe-in for this list as he will be able to play a full season and rack in points throughout the entire year.
Alex Rybakov will also be someone who could contend for a spot on this list in the future, but like Wiersholm, he has committed to play college tennis. He will still be able to make his presence felt in the pro ranks, he just simply won't be able to play enough tournaments throughout the year to reach the same ranking as the young Americans ahead of him.
No comments:
Post a Comment