In the 2016 season, I will be taking part in Jonathan Kelley's competition in which he gathers a few experts together to predict what the year end Top 10 will look like for American tennis players. If you don't already follow Jonathan and the rest of the experts taking part in the competition, go ahead and change that now.
Here, I go into detail about my picks for the ATP and explain how I came up with my final predictions. If you are interested in my predictions for the 21 and Under players, click here.
No. 10 Austin Krajicek
Krajicek makes the list due to his ability to make deep runs at many tournaments and beat many players that are ranked above him. With the weapons of his serve and net play at his disposal, nobody will want to see his name drawn next to Krajicek's in any draw. Despite having a career year in 2015, 2016 sees a lot of room for improvement for the Aggie, as he has minimal points to defend from the middle of April to August. If Krajicek can take advantage of this period of time and make a couple runs at ATP events, he will have no trouble getting back into the Top 100 in 2016 and finishing the year there. He has shown that he can make it through qualifying draws at ATP events, as he did so five times in 2015. If he can continue that success and rely on the wild cards that he will receive, increasing his ranking every week that he plays will not be an issue for him.
No. 9 Taylor Fritz
Fritz certainly belongs on this list, it's just a matter of where he ends up being placed. Ninth is my position for him simply because he has a lot more ground to make up than the rest of these players. Fritz has so many weapons and can crush the ball from anywhere on the court. This, combined with his big serve, makes him a difficult opponent for anyone on the tour. Early in the year, he will have to rely on making runs at challenger events to boost his ranking towards the Top 100, but once his ranking is high enough to get into ATP events, he will certainly make his presence known at the top flight of the game. Considering Fritz has less than 50 points to defend until after the US Open, he will feel no pressure in the early stages of the year as he stockpiles points and becomes a force on the ATP World Tour.
No. 8 Rajeev Ram
Ram was a no-brainer for me to put on this list. In 2015, he was able to make many deep runs at tournaments, including his win in Newport, simply because of his massive serve. With his ranking currently sitting in the Top 100, he will have no issues getting into ATP main draws throughout the beginning of the year, allowing himself to garner a lot of points every week while he continues to focus on his doubles play. A positive for Ram in 2016 is the fact that he should be able to get into the ATP main draws during the grass court season, something that he was not able to do in 2015. If Ram opts to play singles during this period, expect multiple deep runs and a massive increase in his ranking which should see him remain in the Top 100 for the rest of the year. He comes in at the lower end of this list simply because it is unclear how much singles he will want to play, but he will be a tough draw in any singles tournament that he does decide to enter.
No. 7 Ryan Harrison
It isn't a stretch to say that Harrison should be one of the favorites in every tournament that he plays in 2016. With the extensive amount of work that Harrison has put in this offseason, he surely has gotten himself in the best shape and the best mindset possible in order to have a great year in 2016. His ranking will likely take a hit at the beginning of the year because of his early challenger title and run to the semis in Acapulco, but he will be able to overcome this in the latter stages of the year by making deep runs at challenger tournaments and working his way into ATP main draws. Harrison will be a dangerous floater at any ATP event he can get into and he should be able to make a couple quarterfinal, or possibly even semifinal, appearances at ATP events in 2016. Because his ranking will drop early in 2016, he comes in at No. 7 on the list because he will have some ground to make up throughout the rest of the year. With his high level of skill and feisty style of play, he should have no issue working his way back inside the Top 100.
No. 6 Sam Querrey
Querrey has proven to be one of the biggest enigmas for American tennis fans. They know that he can compete at the highest level and make deep runs at tournaments at will, yet he has struggled to do so in the past few years, leading to him finishing 2015 at his lowest year end ranking since 2011. Because he had such a down year in 2015, it will actually be difficult for his ranking to drop any lower in 2016, simply because he has such a small amount of points to defend while he will still be able to play on the World Tour. (Plus, even if he does have to resort to playing challenger events, he will have no issue winning the majority of them, as he proved during the fall of the 2014 season.) Querrey's main problem has been losing in the early rounds of tournaments way too often and losing matches against players that he should be able to beat. If he can eliminate those issues and start winning a couple matches a week, then he will have no issue returning inside the Top 50. He comes in at No. 6 on the list because he has a very high skill level and always has the potential to win any tournament he enters, yet you never know what result he will end up getting once he actually steps on court.
No. 5 Denis Kudla
Kudla splashed onto the scene in 2015 when he made it to the Round of 16 at Wimbledon and took a set off of Marin Cilic. The rest of his season saw a great amount of success, as well, including a title and two finals on the challenger circuit, and making it through the qualifying draw at six different events. These results have proven that Kudla is able to perform at any level and on any surface. In 2016, Kudla will look to transfer his success from the challenger circuit and qualifying draws into the main draws of ATP events, something he will be able to do as he has shown that he can compete with guys ranked inside the Top 20. Kudla sits in the middle of this list because he doesn't quite have the same skill level as the guys ahead of him, yet he is still full of potential and is more proven on the World Tour than those ranked lower than him.
No. 4 Donald Young
One of the feel good stories for American tennis in 2015 came when Young had his magical run at the US Open. Young has been a player throughout his career that has shown glimpses of tremendous potential, but has never really been able to harness it for more than a couple weeks at a time. 2016 is the year that changes though, as Young is becoming one of the top dogs for American tennis as he is beginning to realize his true potential. Expect him to make more deep runs at higher level events, including slams. He has proven that he can never be counted out of any match and can contend with the players in the Top 10, something that will be pivotal to his success in 2016 as he looks to reach a new career high ranking, possibly inside the Top 30. Young is near the top of this list thanks to his fighting spirit and ability to play great defense, yet he still has to be able to find a consistent level of tennis from week to week in order to match those above him.
No. 3 Steve Johnson
The third spot on this list is the perfect position for Johnson as he is still slightly behind Sock and Isner, but he is slightly ahead of Young, Kudla, and the rest. Johnson had a very successful college career, fought his way through the challenger circuit, and is now sitting comfortable inside the Top 50, a place he will be for many years to come. At the end of 2015, Johnson was able to prove that he belongs at the top level of the game, making a final and a semifinal at prestigious tournaments in Europe, something that he will expect more of in 2016. With his ranking approaching the Top 30, Johnson will begin to get more comfortable draws at the majority of tournaments he plays in, allowing him to begin to make deep runs more consistently. Johnson has the ability to reach the Top 20 in 2016 and even contend for titles at the 500 level and Masters events.
No. 2 Jack Sock
It was tempting to put Sock in the No. 1 position of this list, but he might be just a year away from earning that right. Sock is a tremendous player in every aspect of the game, yet he is still completely adapting to the highest level of the game. On the positive side, Sock's heavy groundstrokes and high tenacity make him a tough opponent for everyone on the tour as he has the ability to win every match he plays. If he is able to stay healthy in 2016 and start to contend more against the highest ranked players, Sock has the potential to contend for a spot in the Top 10. Making deep runs consistently is not an issue for the Nebraska native, it is turning those deep runs into finals appearances and titles that may be the biggest issue for him. If he can do that a few times throughout 2016, don't be surprised if he ends the year near the Top 10.
No. 1 John Isner
Isner will end 2016 in a familiar position as he will be the No. 1 ranked American again. It's simply too difficult to pick against Isner because of his huge serve and the fact that his game is always evolving. His work with Justin Gimelstob has developed his game so that he has become a better player on the ground and at the net, two factors that will lead to huge success in 2016. While he had a very successful season in 2015, there are still a few periods of the year where he has room for improvement and will be able to pick up a lot more points than he did last year. One of Isner's main problems has been underperforming in some early rounds and losing to players he has no business losing to, as well as battling with the top guys but just barely coming out on the losing end. If he can begin to cut down on those types of matches and turn those close matches with the top guys into wins, he could easily finish 2016 inside the Top 10 and contend for a spot at the World Tour Finals.
Honorable Mentions
Many Americans deserved a spot on this list but unfortunately there were only 10 openings, and the first person to miss out was Tim Smyczek. His ability to fight and compete with almost anyone on the tour made it tough to leave him out of this list, but its his inconsistency from week to week that ended up being the deciding factor.
Dennis Novikov also nearly missed out, simply because his ranking will take a hit at the end of the year due to his great run of form at the end of 2015. Novikov will most likely be a Top 10 American and enter into the Top 100 at some point in 2016, but it is difficult to tell if he will be able to stay there.
Jared Donaldson will get close to the Top 100 in 2016, but he is still growing and maturing which may not allow him to get the results he needs to finish the year as a Top 10 American. Surely though, 2016 will be the final year that he is kept out of this list.
The same goes for Frances Tiafoe as he is one of the toughest draws ranked outside of the Top 100 right now. Because he had such a spread of success in 2015, it will be difficult to defend points as often as he will have to.
Bjorn Fratangelo has to be considered for this list considering he finished 2015 as the No. 11 American. However, he may be stuck just outside the ranks of Top 10 Americans because some players behind him are going to leap ahead of him. He is only 22 though and has plenty of time left to really harness his game and enter into the Top 100.
The last person I really considered for this list may come as a surprise, but Mitchell Krueger has loads of potential. Coming off a very successful 2015 season, expect Krueger to make deep runs consistently on the challenger tour and increase his ranking inside the Top 150.
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